With green light from Supreme Court, here’s where the GOP can gerrymander before the midterms

The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision in Louisiana v. Callais Wednesday upended decades of civil rights law that will diminish minority representation across the nation over decades. But its most immediate impact may be felt this November.

The ruling has triggered an onrush of Republican redistricting efforts across the South ahead of the 2026 elections. Republicans in Louisiana, Tennessee, and Georgia have all made noises about redistricting before the midterms. Those redraws may not all happen — though Louisiana has already said its postponing its primaries to allow for redistricting — and they might now all hold up in court. But if they do, it could give the GOP as many as five new seats this year. 

That’s in addition to the four potential new seats they grabbed by passing a new map in Florida Wednesday. And to the nine seats Republicans already added thanks to redistricting in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio — for a total haul of 18. 

With President Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the dumps — just 40% in an Emerson College poll released Wednesday, while 56% disapprove — Democrats are favored to reap big gains in the midterms. So Republicans are now looking to gain an edge by tilting the maps in their favor, and the Supreme Court just made that much easier.

Trump urged Republican states to redouble their redrawing Wednesday, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) similarly endorsed the effort, telling reporters Thursday, “All states that have unconstitutional maps should look at that very carefully and I think they should do it before the midterms.”

Florida lawmakers already passed a new gerrymander just hours after the Callais decision was handed down; the decision’s garotting of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) means the GOP has fewer legal challenges to their new map to worry about. It gives the GOP an edge in four seats now held by Democrats.  

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) announced Thursday morning that he was suspending the primary election scheduled for May 16 to allow lawmakers to redraw the congressional map — even though mail ballots to military service members and overseas voters have already been mailed and early voting is slated to begin Saturday. A new map would eliminate either one or both of the majority-minority districts currently represented by Democrats.

Landry’s suspension of the election will surely invite legal challenges that will seek to enforce the existing primary date and prevent a redraw ahead of November. The Supreme Court’s ruling in Callais did not include an order requiring the current map to be immediately replaced, instead remanding the matter to the lower court to handle.  

In Tennessee, the two leading candidates in the GOP’s gubernatorial primary — Rep. John Rose and Sen. Marsha Blackburn — both issued calls Wednesday to redraw the state’s congressional map to eliminate the lone majority-minority district centered around Memphis. 

So far, the state’s current governor and legislative leaders have not decided whether to heed those calls, the Tennessee Lookout reported. But Trump posted on social media Thursday that he “had a very good conversation with Governor Bill Lee, of Tennessee, this morning, wherein he stated that he would work hard to correct the unconstitutional flaw in the Congressional Maps.”*

Tennessee’s primary is scheduled for August 6, leaving the state more time than most to squeeze in a redraw. 

Similarly, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) office said he is “analyzing” the Callais ruling, the Georgia Recorder reported, as some GOP lawmakers there say the state should also redraw its maps. That could lead to two VRA-protected districts currently held by Democrats being reshaped into safe GOP seats. 

But Kemp, who has sole discretion to call a special legislative session, doesn’t have much time: Georgia’s primary is scheduled for May 19. Like in Louisiana, mail ballots have already been sent out. Kemp would most likely need to suspend the election, which would be quickly challenged in court. 

And the hits keep on coming

Not every GOP-led state will — or even can — redraw this year. While some Alabama Republicans said their state should also rush to the drawing room to cut either one or both of its majority-minority seats held by Democrats, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said in a statement Wednesday the state wasn’t in a position to at the moment. 

A federal court ordered Alabama’s current congressional map to stay in place until 2030, a decision upheld by the Supreme Court in 2023’s Allen v. Milligan. In Wednesday’s decision, Justice Samuel Alito declined to extend the ruling to overturn Milligan. However, new legal challenges to Alabama’s map in light of Callais could make a redraw possible ahead of 2028. 

The pro-voting groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter released an analysis in October that found that, in time, Republicans could redraw maps to secure up to 27 additional safe seats (compared to the 2024 House maps), with 19 of those tied directly to the dismantling of the VRA. 

Since that report, Republicans adopted new maps in four states to give them an edge. In Texas, the GOP aims to pick up five new seats; in Ohio two more seats; and in North Carolina and Missouri, one more each, for a total of nine before the 2026 midterms. 

Thus, adding in Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia, Republicans could net 18 new House districts in the 2026 midterms thanks to the gerrymanders authorized by the Supreme Court.

And some of those states could come back to the drawing board ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. According to the Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter report, the GOP could still squeeze another five seats in Texas, two more in Ohio and one more in Missouri now that the VRA is a husk of its former self. 

The other red-leaning states the analysis identified as potential gerrymanders are Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. But none are likely to make any changes this year. 

Indiana narrowly refused Trump’s demands for gerrymanders this year, but could later decide to eliminate the state’s two Democratic-leaning districts. Kentucky lawmakers also flirted with redrawing it’s congressional map last year, but the idea never advanced far. South Carolina likewise declined to eliminate it’s sole majority-minority district this year, as Republicans there worried it would backfire. 

Mississippi already held its primary elections in March. The Kansas primary is scheduled for August 4, but Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, would veto any gerrymandering attempts. 

Republicans in some states not included in the Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter analysis have also raised the idea of fighting to redistrict after Callais. In Arizona, Republican lawmakers suggested they might launch a lawsuit to challenge the current maps, which were drawn by an independent, bipartisan commission, Axios reported.

Democrats could counter the GOP’s gerrymanders with their redistricting of their own in the states they control, as California and Virginia have already demonstrated. Some argue that by eliminating majority-minority districts to spread Democratic-leaning voters around, states like New York, New Jersey and Minnesota could possibly reduce or even completely neutralize the GOP’s gains.

*This article was updated to include Trump’s social media comments.