New York plans to help Democrats retain the House in 2028

Empire State Democrats have mapped out their plans to rewrite the state constitution to allow for a new congressional map ahead of the 2028 elections that could net the party four additional U.S. House seats.

The party will first amend the New York state constitution to allow the legislature to redraw maps mid-decade by a simple majority vote. The proposal, which voters would need to approve in a referendum in November 2027, also allows mapmakers to consider explicitly partisan goals like helping a political party win more seats. 

“These changes will ensure that our state has the tools necessary to preserve a level playing field in the face of Republican-led efforts to tilt maps and weaken democratic participation — without compromising the integrity of the Independent Redistricting Commission,” Senate President Andrea Stewart Cousins wrote in a memo to Democratic state legislators.

The memo described the proposed changes as necessary steps to conform to the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which effectively blessed partisan gerrymandering.

If adopted by the state legislature and then adopted by voters, the measure would grant the lawmakers in Albany the temporary authority to redraw maps just for the 2028 election. The state’s Independent Redistricting Commission would remain in place as the primary drafter of new maps after the decennial census and reapportionment. 

The proposal would also attempt to prevent judges from appointing a special master to redraw a map, should it be challenged successfully in court. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has pushed for Democrats to respond to the GOP gerrymandering assault President Donald Trump launched last summer. While California was able to redraw its maps ahead of upcoming midterm elections, an attempt in Virginia to do the same fell apart in the state Supreme Court.. 

Republican redraws in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, North Carolina, Louisiana and Florida will likely help the GOP retain six to 10 more seats in November than they otherwise would have, but a Democratic counterpunch could largely erase those gains in 2028. 

Democrats currently hold 19 of New York’s 26 U.S. House seats. A partisan gerrymander could help them take upwards of four seats, turning swing districts in Long Island and the Hudson Valley into blue seats, dividing up Staten Island to remove a red-leaning district there, and targeting one of the GOP’s districts upstate. 

Election handicappers already give Democrats fair odds of taking one of those seats in the upcoming midterms, but the rest are considered safe for Republicans.