Don’t despair, Democrats! How the party can get even, or pull ahead, in the gerrymandering war

By Jim Saksa

In recent weeks, courts have handed the GOP two massive wins in the gerrymandering war launched by President Donald Trump. 

First, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, spurring a rush among Southern states to wipe out Democratic-held majority-Black seats that had been required by the landmark law. Then, Virginia’s high court nullified a referendum in which voters had approved a Democratic-backed map that would have given the party four additional seats to counter Republican gains elsewhere.

The twin rulings have given the GOP a clear, unearned edge in this fall’s midterms. 

But if Democrats are willing to play political hardball, that edge could be neutered by 2028. In fact, by doing their own partisan redraws in big blue states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois — and trying again in the Old Dominion — the party could even potentially emerge from this scorched-earth battle with anywhere between a six- and thirteen-seat advantage over Republicans, according to a Democracy Docket analysis. 

It won’t be easy. In several states, they’ll need to get voters to amend state constitutions to bypass redistricting commissions, via lengthy and costly processes that are far from guaranteed to succeed — and they’ll need to win commanding majorities in a few state houses before they can even try. In some cases, they may also need to dilute minority voting power, which will risk angering perhaps its most important voting bloc.  And the GOP will likely keep redrawing wherever it can (but probably not South Carolina, where Republican lawmakers decided splitting the lone district held by Democrats there too risky).

It’s also worth noting the GOP likely won’t realize all the gains this fall that its gerrymanders were intended to secure. With Trump’s approval ratings at historic lows — a recent Pew Research Center survey found just 34% of Americans supported Trump — it’s expected to be a strong Democratic year. Pollster G. Elliot Morris estimates that, in reality, Republicans will net only six seats thanks to the redraws. So, if Democratic states do redraw maps after this year’s election, expect the baseline figures and pickup totals to change.

Pollsters and election prognosticators put the GOP’s congressional redistricting advantage at +4, meaning that Democrats need to win 4% more of the popular vote across the nation to break even with Republicans. As bad as that sounds, it’s roughly on par with the Republican’s advantage in 2018, when Democrats retook the House in commanding fashion. 

One note before we get to the numbers: For the two states (California, Utah) that might redistrict for a third time this decade, Democracy Docket used the predicted congressional delegation numbers after the 2026 midterms as a baseline to compare to the potential changes ahead of the 2028 elections, where California might gerrymander more aggressively for Democrats while Utah might re-gerrymander its maps for Republicans. 

Breaking down potential gains across parties

Potential Democratic gains:
  • Colorado: 3-4 seats
  • New Jersey: 2 seats
  • New York: 3-5 seats
  • Maryland: 1 seat
  • Illinois: 1-3 seats
  • Virginia: 4 seats
  • California: 1-4 seats
  • Wisconsin: 2 seats
  • Washington: 0-1 seats
  • Oregon: 0-1 seats

2026 redraws subtotal: 6 seats

2028 redraws subtotal: 17-27 seats

Total redraw gains ahead of 2028: 25-35 seats

Potential Republican Gains:
  • Indiana: 1-2 seats
  • Utah: 1 seat
  • Kansas: 1 seat
  • New Hampshire: 1 seat

2026 redraw subtotal: 15-17 seats

2028 redraw subtotal: 4-5 seats

Total redraw gains ahead of 2028: 19-22 seats

Potential Democratic redraw gain ahead of 2028: 6-13 seats

Democratic states joining the fight

Colorado

Congressional delegation today: 4 D – 4 R (50.0%-50%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 8 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Democratic lawmakers launched the ballot initiative effort to scrap Colorado’s bipartisan redistricting committee in February. But before it can, 55% of voters will need to approve the constitutional amendment – a higher hurdle than 50% in most other states. The state has shifted further left in recent years and a new partisan map could give Democrats all of Colorado’s eight U.S. House seats, but seven might be more likely.

New Jersey

Congressional delegation today: 9 D – 3 R (75.0%-25%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 11 D – 1 R (91.7%-8.3%)

2024 vote share: Harris 52%, Trump 46%

To bypass New Jersey’s bipartisan redistricting commission, a supermajority of Garden State lawmakers will need to enact an amendment to the state Constitution, and then voters would need to approve it in a ballot measure. Currently, the state sends 9 Democrats and 3 Republicans to the House. A redraw could make the split 11-1. 

Democrats already have high hopes of unseating Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) from his swingy 7th District. Trump’s net approval is -19% in the 7th, a district that he won by 1% in 2024. And Kean, who has a frosty relationship with the press, recently missed nearly two months of votes with an undisclosed “personal medical issue.” 

Democrats have somewhat lower hopes of unseating Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) from the 2nd District. Trump’s net approval is -7% there, a huge decline from his 13% margin of victory in 2024. 

New York

Congressional delegation today: 19 D – 7 R (73.1%-26.9%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 24 D – 2 R (88.5%-11.5%)

2024 vote share: Harris 56%, Trump 43%

New York Democrats are on their way to overriding the state’s bipartisan redistricting committee, which requires a constitutional amendment passed in two consecutive state legislature sessions and public adoption via ballot initiative. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) says she is all in on the fight, as is Jeffries. Assuming state lawmakers follow leadership here, and the state’s overwhelmingly Democratic voters give it their stamp of approval, a new New York congressional map could swing five seats to Democrats — although three or four maybe more realistic.

However, that would require breaking up a few majority-minority districts, centered in and around New York City, blending them with whiter communities on Long Island, and in Westchester and Rockland counties. 

Complicating matters will be New York’s own constitutional protections for minority voters. State courts struck down the congressional map adopted in 2024, saying that Staten Island’s 11th District unduly diluted the power of Black and Hispanic voters and ordering a new map. But the U.S. Supreme Court halted that decision in a shadow docket order in March. 

Reconsidering redistricting

Maryland

Congressional delegation today: 7 D – 1 R (87.5%-12.5%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 8 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Harris 63%, Trump 34%

The Maryland House authorized new maps in February but Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) declined to bring it up. The map would have split up Republican Rep. Andy Harris’s seat on the Eastern Shore. Ferguson now faces a primary challenge from Bobby LaPin, which observers say will be tight. Even if Ferguson wins, Democrats could pressure him into allowing the redraw vote or oust him from his leadership position if he again refuses. 

If lawmakers do redraw the map, there’ll still be legal challenges to overcome in a state where Republican appointees to the supreme court outnumber the Democratic jurists. 

Illinois

Congressional delegation today: 14 D – 3 R (82.4%-14.6%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 17 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Illinois is one of the few Democrat-dominated states that hasn’t adopted a bipartisan or independent redistricting commission, meaning it could redraw its maps tomorrow in a way that would make it all but impossible for Republicans to compete in any of its 17 congressional districts. But that would require splitting up a number of majority-Black districts and local lawmakers resisted proposals to do that when Illinois adopted its current map in 2021. Moreover, Illinois is already arguably the most gerrymandered Democratic state in the nation, so even if lawmakers there do decide to play hardball, they might go for picking up just one or two more seats, not all three now held by the GOP.

Democratic Redos

Virginia

Congressional delegation today: 6 D – 5 R (54.5%-45.5%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 10 D  – 1 R (90.9%- 9.1%)

2024 vote share: Harris 46%, Trump: 52%

Virginia’s supreme court struck down the voter-approved redistricting on procedural grounds, holding that Democrats added their ballot question too late. They’ll be able to fix that hiccup before 2028, paving the way for a 10-1 redraw. 

As noted above, however, even with today’s maps in place, Democrats could pick up two or even three seats in Virginia, where the GOP’s quiescence as Elon Musk’s DOGE decimated government jobs has Republicans incumbents in hot water with voters.

California

Expected Congressional delegation after 2026: 48 D – 4 R (92.3%-7.7%)

Potential delegation after redistricting again: 52 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Harris 59%, Trump: 38% 

House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (Calif.) told Axios his state might take another crack at remapping. The current map, adopted by voters in November, projects Democrats winning 48 seats to the GOP’s 4. But an even more aggressive gerrymander is possible. As in other Democratic states, the partisan advantages would come at the cost of diluting minority voting power across multiple districts. How far Californian lawmakers would be willing to go remains unclear. 

Where Democrats dare to dream

Wisconsin

Congressional delegation today: 2 D – 6 R (50.0%-50%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 4 D – 4 R (87.5%-12.5%)

2024 vote share: Harris 49%, Trump 50%

Before Democrats can go about undoing Wisconsin’s current, pro-Republican gerrymander, which gives the GOP six of the state’s eight U.S. House seats, they’ll need to reclaim control of the state house. Republicans hold the state senate by a three-seat margin and the state assembly by nine. The last time the GOP didn’t win both chambers was 2008, because after the party regained total control in 2010, Republicans went about adopting one of the most egregious state legislative gerrymanders and congressional gerrymanders. 

But Democrats have scored some wins in recent years, holding the governorship and gaining 5-2 advantage on the state supreme court, which is elected. While the gerrymandered legislative map has been thrown out, allowing Democrats to compete for control in Madison, the GOP-favored congressional map remains in place.* 

In what is shaping up to be a wave year for Democrats, flipping a couple of seats in the senate and a handful in the assembly seems doable. A recent poll by A Better Wisconsin Together, a progressive activist group, found voters in four assembly districts already preferred a generic Democrat over the GOP incumbent.

Democrats may already be poised to emerge from the midterms with a half of Wisconsin’s congressional seats. Republican Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden both narrowly won their 2024 reelections in a year where Trump won the state. But Trump’s net approval rating currently sits at -24% in Wisconsin. 

In addition to making those seats easier to defend (or challenge again), a new map could put another one or two GOP-held districts into play. But Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan (D) recently told Axios he doubts his party would try anything more aggressive, even assuming they win both legislative chambers in a landslide this fall. More likely would be a simply fair map reflecting Wisconsin’s closely divided electorate.

Washington

Congressional delegation today: 8 D – 2 R (75.0%-25%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 9 D – 1 R (90%-10%)

2024 vote share: Harris 57%, Trump 39%

Before Washington could redraw its maps, it would need to set aside its redistricting commission first, and to do that, it’ll need to win a supermajority in this year’s legislative races. That seems unlikely, given that Democrats there see few strong pickup opportunities. 

But even if they could do that, Democrats already hold eight of Washington’s ten seats, making an additional gerrymander more difficult to pull off. 
That said, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) faces a tough reelection race this year. A recent National Republican Congressional Committee poll showed her trailing her GOP opponent. If a supermajority of Democrats in Olympia could tweak the congressional map, it would help Gluesenkamp Perez (or another Democrat) either retain or retake the seat in 2028. And maybe — just maybe — pick up another.

Oregon

Congressional delegation today: 5 D – 1 R (83.3%-17.7%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 6 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Harris 55%, Trump 41%

Democrats have the votes in Salem to draw out Rep. Cliff Bentz’s (R) seat, in theory. But the Oregon state legislature’s quorum rules allow the minority party to effectively shut down any proceeding by running away. They would need a supermajority to get past that hurdle, and that seems unlikely. 

Republican Redraw Renewal

Indiana

Congressional delegation today: 7 R – 2 D (77.7%-33.3%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 9 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Trump 58%, Harris: 40%
After a handful of Republicans in the Indiana senate rebuked Trump’s demands for a new map, the vengeful president spent $7 million in primaries against them, winning most of the contests. It seems unlikely that Indiana Republicans will dare defy Trump again. A new map could eliminate either one or both of the two seats Democrats currently hold.

Utah

Expected Congressional delegation after 2026: 3 R – 1 D (100%-0%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 3 R – 1 D (75%-25%)

2024 vote share: Trump 60%, Harris: 38%

Utah Republicans fought like hell to keep the state supreme court from replacing its 4-0 congressional gerrymander with a new map giving Democrats a shot in a Salt Lake City area seat. While those efforts fell short of blocking the map, a GOP pressure campaign did lead to the resignation of the supreme court justice who penned the decision. It’s very likely Republicans will try to resurrect their old map again before 2028.

Nebraska

Congressional delegation today: 3 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 3 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Trump 59%, Harris: 39%

Democrats hope to win the Omaha-area seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R) this year, a district Kamala Harris won in 2024. But while it’s technically non-partisan, Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is dominated by Republicans and the incumbent Republican governor is favored to win reelection this fall. That means any Democratic joy in Nebraska’s 2nd district might be short lived. 

Iowa

Congressional delegation today: 4 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 4 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Trump 56%, Harris: 43%

Democrats have high hopes to compete across Iowa this year, with strong candidates for governor and senate at the top of the ticket. Along with Trump’s tariffs, rising fuel and fertlizier costs caused by the war in Iran have hit farmers in this agricultural state hard. 

Democrats fell just a few hundred votes short of winning the 1st and 3rd Districts in 2024 and the 2nd District could be competitive this year with incumbent Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) running for senate instead. 
But the GOP controls a supermajority in both state legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion. If Republicans hold onto their iron grip on Des Moines, they will face considerable pressure to redraw maps to preserve their 4-0 advantage.

Kansas 

Congressional delegation today: 3 R – 1 D (75%-25%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 4 R – 0 D (100%-0%)

2024 vote share: Trump 57%, Harris: 41%

Democrat Laura Kelly currently occupies the gubernatorial mansion in Topeka, but Republicans hold supermajorities in both the state house and state senate. While Kelly’s veto pen has blocked many partisan bills, she’s term-limited and can’t run again this year. If the GOP wins the governor’s race, they might try to gerrymander away the state’s lone competitive seat, currently held by Rep. Sharice Davids (D).

New Hampshire

Congressional delegation today: 2 D – 0 R (100%-0%)

Potential delegation after redistricting: 1D – 1 R (50%-50%)

2024 vote share: Harris 51%, Trump 48%

Even though the GOP controls a trifecta in New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte declined to answer Trump’s redistricting call last summer. While the state normally votes to send Democrats to Washington, locally Republicans perform quite well. If Ayotte runs for reelection and wins — she has yet to announce — she’ll likely face pressure to redraw the congressional map again. 

*Plaintiffs in some of these lawsuits were represented by the Elias Law Group (ELG). ELG Chair Marc Elias is the founder of Democracy Docket.

Jen Rice, Matt Cohen, Yunior Rivas, Adeline Toile, Maya Bodinson and Jacob Knutson contributed to this report.