While Trump fights mail voting, study shows Democrats in vital battleground states use it more than Republicans

As the Supreme Court considers the fate of President Donald Trump’s anti-mail voting executive order, a new analysis breaks down how it would hinder Democrats more than Republicans if put into place for this year’s elections.

The report released Monday by the voting rights group Fair Fight found Democrats requested mail ballots at a greater rate than Republicans in five of the seven swing states crucial to the outcome of the 2024 election. 

Several of those states contain some of the most important congressional races of the midterms, the report highlighted. With control of the House and Senate on the ballot, Trump’s legislative agenda in his final two years in office is at stake.

Trump, who frequently votes by mail himself, has baselessly claimed for years that mail voting is rife with fraud, even though federal agencies defending his mail voting restrictions have failed to offer any evidence in court to support that claim.

In Pennsylvania, which is home to three competitive House races this year, Democrats accounted for 56% of mail ballots compared to about 32% for Republicans in 2024, according to the report.

In Michigan, where there are two competitive House races and a vital Senate contest, Democrats outpaced Republicans in mail voting 49% to 39% in 2024, Fair Fight determined.

“Trump is a desperate loser who has spent years lying to his supporters about mail voting ‘fraud’ – as a result many stopped using a method they once trusted,” Lauren Groh-Wargo, the CEO of Fair Fight Action, said in a statement. “Voting by mail is secure, convenient, and accessible.”

Trump has long made clear his partisan goal for restricting mail voting, once saying in a social media post that it would  “LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY.” 

The president’s March executive order mandating new restrictions on the voting method has now been blocked by two federal judges, both of whom said it is likely unlawful and risks disenfranchising millions of voters. 

The partisan gap in mail voting has been highlighted by prominent Democratic groups and party leaders* challenging the administration in court. Democrats argue Trump’s order would deprive them of a fair election process. 

U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, late Sunday night issued a preliminary injunction in favor of the Democrats that bars implementation of the order. In his ruling, Nichols said the Democratic parties involved “contend that the Rule will harm their chances in the upcoming election cycle, and the Court of Appeals has held that this type of injury is cognizable under Article III” of the Constitution.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer both celebrated Nichols’ ruling.

“The Constitution is clear: Trump cannot hijack an election,” Schumer wrote on X. “The Supreme Court must follow it, uphold the rule of law, and put an end to Trump’s unprecedented attempts to make it harder for American citizens to vote.”

*The Elias Law Group (ELG) represents the plaintiffs in this case. ELG Firm Chair Marc Elias is the founder of Democracy Docket.