Mississippi Senate race hits key ballot deadlines. Here’s what comes next

One week after Election Day, Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race remains unresolved. But Tuesday marks a critical deadline in the state’s prolonged ballot-counting process.

It’s the last day for election officials to receive mail-in ballots that were postmarked by Election Day. It is also the deadline for the relatively small number of voters who cast affidavit ballots because they lacked acceptable photo ID to provide that identification so their votes can be counted.

But the counting — and the battle over the results — will likely continue.

The deadlines come as Democrat Scott Colom holds a growing but still narrow lead over Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), with thousands of ballots still being processed in a race that could ultimately be decided by a fraction of a percentage point.

As of Monday, Colom led Hyde-Smith by 2,536 votes, according to unofficial results from the Associated Press. The race remains too close to call.

And although a window for certain outstanding ballots is closing, election officials still have several days to finish counting and certify their results.

What happens Tuesday?

Mississippi law allows absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to arrive as many as five business days afterward. This year, that means ballots must reach county circuit clerks’ offices by 5 p.m. CST Tuesday to be eligible for counting.

That deadline could prove consequential in a race separated by only a few thousand votes.

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson (R) reported Monday that just over 2,700 absentee ballots remained outstanding. But not all of those ballots will necessarily arrive by the deadline or meet the legal requirements to be counted.

Tuesday also marks the deadline for certain voters who cast affidavit ballots — Mississippi’s term for provisional ballots — to resolve outstanding identification issues.

Voters who cast an affidavit ballot because they could not present an acceptable photo ID at the polls have until 5 p.m. CST Tuesday to provide identification to their county circuit clerk’s office or complete an affidavit of religious objection, as permitted by state law.

Crucially, that deadline does not apply to every affidavit ballot.

Thousands of voters across Mississippi cast affidavit ballots for other reasons, including discovering that their registrations had been marked inactive or that their names were missing from voter rolls.

Those ballots must still be reviewed by county election commissioners, who determine whether each voter was eligible and whether the ballot can be counted. Around three in four have been counted so far.

That process has drawn intense scrutiny following widespread complaints about the state’s controversial voter roll maintenance program, which incorporated commercial data from Experian and resulted in some voters being incorrectly flagged as having moved.

What happens after Tuesday?

The next major deadline is Friday, when Mississippi’s 82 counties must submit their certified election results to the secretary of state’s office.

County election commissioners have until then to finish reviewing outstanding affidavit ballots, process eligible absentee ballots and complete the canvassing process.

That deadline should not be confused with the state’s former mail-in absentee ballot signature-cure process, which was previously also Nov. 13. But Watson’s office quietly eliminated it through an temporary rule change in August. The secretary of state’s office confirmed that voters can no longer correct signature mismatches on mail-in absentee ballots.

Once counties complete their reviews, their certified results will establish the official county-level vote totals.

The secretary of state’s office is scheduled to declare the statewide general election results on December 3.

Could there still be a legal fight?

Even after the counting ends, the outcome could face legal challenges.

Republican officials have already raised concerns about the handling of affidavit ballots, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) demanding that election officials segregate and preserve those ballots and associated records. Lawyers for Colom have responded that the GOP’s demand seeks to “violate Mississippi voters’ rights.”

Both campaigns have deployed attorneys and observers to monitor the counting process. In Jackson, Democracy Docket witnessed lawyers for the Hyde-Smith campaign vocally objecting to seemingly minor actions by Hinds County election commissioners — signals they may be seeking grounds for a lawsuit. 

That would be significant. Mississippi does not provide for an automatic recount in close elections. A candidate seeking to challenge the results or obtain a recount would generally have to pursue relief through the courts.

That means the Nov. 13 certification deadline may not necessarily bring an end to the dispute.

For now, the immediate focus remains on the thousands of outstanding ballots and the election officials determining which ones can legally be counted.