GOP’s Anti-Democratic Gerrymander Drive Kicks Into High Gear

After President Donald Trump told Republican states this summer to jump the gun on redistricting — a practice normally undertaken after the decennial census — many only asked how highly rigged their new maps should be.  

Facing increasingly dire polling figures, Trump wants to keep Democrats from reclaiming control of the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections by gerrymandering their seats into oblivion in GOP-controlled states. 

The Republican push to redistrict in states with pliant legislatures is a move as blatantly partisan — Trump has told reporters “we are entitled to five more seats” in Texas — as it is breathtakingly contemptuous of democratic values. 

This week, the Supreme Court’s conservatives signaled that they’re likely to make things worse, if — as expected — they strike down or severely weaken the Voting Rights Act’s most important provision. Such a ruling would pave the way for GOP-dominated states, particularly in the South, to draw gerrymandered maps that decimate the political power of minority voters and kill off yet more Democratic-held seats. 

But more quietly, in red states across the country, GOP lawmakers and officials took a range of steps to move forward with their gerrymanders. Together, the moves suggest that, even leaving the Supreme Court aside, Republicans have abandoned any remaining political or moral qualms about drawing maps that maximize their advantage — with potentially dire consequences for the future of fair elections.    

Indiana

Vice President JD Vance has put on a full court press to convince Hoosier Republicans to further gerrymander their congressional map, visiting the state in August and again last week, even as Mitch Daniels, a popular former Republican governor, called it “wrong.”

But the pressure seems to be working. After initially trying to downplay the chances of a mid-decade redistricting, Gov. Mike Braun (R) changed his tune in September, saying “if we try to drag our feet as a state on it, probably, we’ll have consequences of not working with the Trump administration as tightly as we should.”

Shortly after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Sen. Jim Banks (Ind.-R) turned the conservative’s death into a redistricting rallying call. 

“They killed Charlie Kirk — the least that we can do is go through a legal process and redistrict Indiana into a nine to zero map,” Banks said at a conservative summit. 

According to Punchbowl, the Republican caucuses in both legislative chambers are holding internal votes this week on whether to move forward or not. If they do, Republicans could potentially target both of Indiana’s two Democratic representatives to capture all 9 of the state’s seats. 

Kansas

The GOP has Kansas’ lone Democratic member of Congress in their sights. If 84 of the 88 Republicans in the Kansas House sign off, there’ll be a special legislative session in November to redraw the congressional map to make it hard, if not impossible, for Rep. Sharice Davids (D) to hold her 3rd District seat. 

Lawmakers have already budgeted $460,000 to cover the cost of the four-day legislative session 

As those talks continue, a group of Republican state lawmakers were invited to the White House this week. 

Republicans tried to gerrymander Davids out of her Kansas City-area seat after decennial redistricting in 2022, but she managed to still win in 2024.

North Carolina

This week, North Carolina Republicans in the General Assembly said they planned to redraw the congressional map to give the GOP an 11th safe seat out of 14 in this state where support for the two parties is about dead even.* The state senate’s Elections Committee is scheduled to take up the proposal this coming Monday.

Lawmakers unveiled a proposed map that would target Rep. Don Davis (D). The proposal would shift the district from one that narrowly voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election to one that voted for Trump by more than seven points, according to North Carolina Public Radio. 

While Democrat Josh Stein occupies the governor’s mansion in Raleigh, he’s powerless to stop this gerrymander: North Carolina is the only state in the nation that explicitly prohibits a gubernatorial veto of congressional maps drawn by the state legislature. 

Louisiana

After the Supreme Court’s conservatives made pretty clear they plan to toss out Louisiana’s current congressional map — drawn to remedy the prior map’s racial gerrymandering — Gov. Jeff Landry (R) called an extraordinary session of the state legislature. The session, scheduled to begin on Oct. 23 and run to mid-November, will move back some candidate deadlines ahead of the 2026 midterms to allow Louisiana’s GOP-dominated legislature to redraw the congressional map early next year, according to reports from the Louisiana Illuminator. 

If Louisiana merely returns to the 2022 map, it would likely net the GOP one additional seat out of the state’s six districts, but an even more aggressive gerrymander might be possible that would let them flip both Democratic-held seats. 

Missouri

The campaign to block the newly gerrymandered maps Missouri adopted in September took two steps forward, one step back this week. 

Missouri’s constitution provides for a “people’s veto” — voters can, via a ballot referendum, reject almost any law passed by the legislature, including congressional maps.

After initially refusing to accept the referendum petition, Sec. of State Denny Hoskins (R) announced its approval on Wednesday. But in doing so, he claimed the petition signatures already collected were invalid. 

Then Hoskins joined Attorney General Catherine Hanaway (R) in suing the referendum organizers, People Not Politicians Missouri, under a theory the group’s lawyer called “ridiculous,” and that one prominent election law expert described as “embarrassing.”

People Not Politicians is fighting both Hoskins’ claims about signatures and Hanaway’s lawsuit in court. At a press conference Thursday, the group said they were confident of victories in both. The new maps also face four other ongoing legal challenges. 

If Missourians don’t reject the new maps and none of the lawsuits succeed, it’ll likely flip one seat to the GOP. 

Ohio

Ohio is already in the midst of its redistricting process, thanks to the quirks of Buckeye State law. If lawmakers cannot agree on a bipartisan redistricting, then they can implement a stop-gap map that lasts four years (compared to ten for a bipartisan one). Ohio Republicans pushed through a GOP-favorable map after the 2020 census that lasted four years, and so it’s time to come up with another one. 

The Ohio Redistricting Commission will hold its first meeting on Oct. 21, and it has until the end of the month to come up with a bipartisan map. 

Democrats put forth a proposal that would split the state’s congressional delegation in line with the state’s partisan lean, giving the GOP 8 of the state’s 15 seats. But Republicans still haven’t unveiled their proposal, suggesting they have no intention of even trying to come up with a bipartisan map. 

Ohio’s current map has been declared unconstitutionally gerrymandered twice, but Ohio voters have been stuck with it nonetheless. The delegation today is 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats, but some observers say the GOP could perhaps increase their lead to 12 or 13 districts with an even more extreme gerrymander. 

Texas

The Lone Star State is where this all started. 

Texas Republicans adopted their new map over the summer, at Trump’s behest. If left to stand, it’ll likely lead to the GOP flipping five Democratic seats. 

Texas voters* are challenging the map as a racial gerrymander in federal court. A lengthy hearing — extensively covered by Democracy Docket — wrapped up last week. 

Utah

Utah’s Supreme Court invalidated the state’s congressional gerrymander in September, kicking off contentious — and convoluted — efforts by the GOP to get around the ruling. 

Republican state lawmakers have put forth a couple of proposals to undermine a 2018 ballot measure, Proposition 4, that required fair maps. They adopted one, Senate Bill 1011, in October while advancing a new map that would maintain the GOP’s edge in all four of Utah’s congressional districts. 

Pro-voting groups immediately sued to block the new map, which is essentially the same as the old map. Whether they succeed may depend on whether the state courts agree that Senate Bill 1011 is an unconstitutional attempt to get around Proposition 4.

If the new map stays, there’s a small chance it’ll backfire on the GOP. While all four districts lean Republican, Democrats would only face a six-point disadvantage in one and an 11-point disadvantage in another, creating considerable — but plausibly surmountable — challenges.

Other Republican-led states eyeing gerrymanders

Those aren’t the only GOP-controlled states that have taken steps to redistrict. In Florida, lawmakers launched a select committee to explore redistricting, manned by 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats. When the Florida legislature reconvenes in January, Republicans could move quickly to adopt new maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. 

The White House also pressured New Hampshire to redraw its two-district map, but Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) has resisted, leading to reports that Trump will support a primary challenge against her. While Democrats make up the entirety of the state’s congressional delegation, Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature.  

While Republicans running for governor in South Carolina have called for a new gerrymander there, which would eliminate the lone Democratic seat held by Rep. Jim Clyburn, state lawmakers have so far hesitated. 

Similarly, in Nebraska the Republican governor says he is “open” to mid-decade redistricting, but key state lawmakers have poured cold water on the idea. 

Democratic responses

In California, Proposition 50 is on the ballot this November. If voters approve it, it’ll amend California’s current redistricting process to allow lawmakers to remap in response to other states launching mid-decade gerrymanders. In short, that means Democrats there would be able to redraw the 2026 midterm map to gain five additional seats — effectively offsetting the GOP’s Texas gerrymander.

Democrats in Maryland, Illinois, and New York have all also raised the prospect of responding with gerrymanders in their states. Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) has urged her colleagues in other states to “respond in kind.”

But the maps in Illinois and Maryland already heavily favor Democrats, making it harder for any potential redraw to net additional seats. Some members of Maryland’s congressional delegation reportedly oppose trying to redraw the map to remove the state’s lone Republican congressman. 

In New York, the state constitution makes it harder to redistrict mid-decade. The earliest Democrats there could redraw congressional maps would be ahead of the 2028 elections — assuming voters approve constitutional amendments. 

*Correction: Due to an editing error, this line originally read “an 11th safe seat out of 1413.” There are only 14 congressional districts in North Carolina.