GOP Could Lock in House Control for a Generation if SCOTUS Ends Key VRA Protection, Report Warns

By Yunior Rivas

U.S. Capitol Police officers stand post behind the temporary anti-scaling fence surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court, on Tuesday, June 28, 2022, in Washington. The Supreme Court has put on hold a lower court ruling that Louisiana must draw new congressional districts before the 2022 elections to increase Black voting power. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Next week, the U.S. Supreme Court will rehear a case whose outcome would effectively end one of the last remaining protections against racially discriminatory voting maps. At stake is Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the federal law’s central safeguard against racial gerrymanders.

A new report from pro-voting groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter paints a stark picture of what could happen if the court sides with plaintiffs seeking to weaken the core provision.

“Combined with Republicans’ mid-decade gerrymandering, a ruling gutting Section 2 could help secure an additional 27 safe Republican U.S. House seats, at least 19 directly tied to the loss of Section 2,” the report explains. “It’s enough to cement one-party control of the U.S. House for at least a generation.”

According to the report, if Section 2 is gutted by the court, Republican-controlled state legislatures could use mid-cycle redistrictings to seize additional U.S. House seats, locking in a partisan advantage at the expense of voters. 

In total, 27 congressional districts would be at risk, and the consequences would, as expected, fall hardest on minority voters. As many as 30% of the Congressional Black Caucus seats and 11% of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus seats could be eliminated. 

Voters in states like Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas would be particularly impacted. Districts in Texas and Florida could be gerrymandered even further. In Alabama and Mississippi, majority-Black districts could be eliminated entirely, erasing Black voters’ ability to elect candidates of their choice.

“Republican lawmakers could eliminate both minority opportunity districts while drawing a map that locks in Republican control,” the report adds. “The single minority opportunity district in Mississippi could be eliminated if Section 2 is struck down – eradicating Black voters’ ability to elect any candidate of their choice to Congress in the Blackest state in America.”

Along with the GOP’s aggressive mid-decade redistricting in red states, the report concludes that “a decision to strike down Section 2 could essentially take America back to pre-1965, when there were no effective protections against racially discriminatory voting maps.”