More States Consider Joining Redistricting Fight Launched by Trump
Facing increasingly dire polls, President Donald Trump recently launched a gerrymandering war in the hopes of staving off Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Since the opening salvo in Texas, this redistricting battle has spread across the nation in just a few short weeks, as Democrats have decided to fight fire-with-fire and threaten their own mid-decade gerrymanders in response.
Republican mapmakers reportedly believe that somewhere between nine to 12 seats are theirs for the taking — a difference large enough to sway control of the House in the last three Congresses.
The Republican push to redistrict in states with supine legislatures is a nakedly partisan move — Trump has said as much, telling reporters “we are entitled to five more seats” in Texas — made possible by the decades-long efforts of the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservatives to weaken legal checks on racial gerrymandering. The Supreme Court made things worse in Rucho v. Common Cause, a 2019 decision that decided partisan gerrymandering — although unconstitutional — was a nonjusticiable political question beyond courts’ abilities to resolve.
Alarmed by the GOP’s map swapping gambit, Democratic leaders have stopped pushing for unilateral disarmament in the form of independent redistricting commissions, calling for their own retaliatory district redraws.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker highlighted that tension between Democratic idealism and realpolitik Sunday. “Donald Trump and Republicans are pushing illegal maps that violate the Voting Rights Act,” he wrote on Bluesky. “Instead, Congress should pass fair, independent maps nationwide. Without that, Democratic states must consider all the options to protect our constitutional republic.”
Even though large majorities of Americans overwhelmingly hate partisan gerrymandering, voters rarely punish politicians for doing it — a Republican or Democrat disappointed by partisan map-making tactics still back their own side come election day.
If Democrats pressed their partisan advantage to the maximum in blue states, it could potentially yield 11 safe seats, perhaps matching the gains sought by Republicans in red states. But replacing independent commissions in California and New York would take time — even assuming voters in those states agree to play partisan hardball to counter gerrymanders in Republican-controlled states.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) made that explicit on Fox News this weekend. “Texas, knock it off, we’ll knock it off,” she said. “You want to play these games? We’re not going to sit on the sidelines. We’re New Yorkers; we fight back.”
As Democratic states respond, Trump’s Department of Justice (DOJ) is threatening selective legal action against them. Harmeet Dhillon, head of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, warned in a weekend interview that “there will be consequences” for California and New York should they redistrict because they are already “gerrymandered to the hilt.”
Democrats may be abandoning the moral high ground in the gerrymandering wars, but Republicans have long enjoyed control of the strategic high ground. According to a Roll Call analysis, the most recent congressional redistricting process was controlled by just Republicans in 17 states compared to seven states where Democrats held total control. Out of 428 House districts reconfigured for the 2022 or 2024 elections (and not counting states with only one, at-large representative) “174 districts were drawn by just Republicans and 49 by just Democrats,” Roll Call found.
Redistricting, State-by-State
Any of the new maps drawn could expect to face legal challenges. But it’s unlikely those lawsuits would be resolved ahead of the 2026 midterms, even if they’re ultimately successful. Those outcomes seem doubtful, however, given that the U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to neuter the primary statutory vehicle for blocking racial gerrymandering, the Voting Rights Act.
Below is a state-by-state overview of where things stand now and where they might wind up before the 2026 midterms. There have also been redistricting demands or rumors in other states not listed below, but for now, those seem less likely. It also excludes states that face ongoing legal challenges that could see their current maps tossed out, like Louisiana.
For each state, we provide the partisan makeup of the Congressional delegation today, the expected makeup after 2026 should the state redistrict (based off of 2024 electoral patterns), and the percentage of party representation compared to the 2024 presidential vote share.
Republican-led states:
Texas:
Congressional delegation today: 25 R – 12 D (1 vacancy) (65.8%-31.6%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 30 R – 8 D (78.9%-21.1%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 56.1%, Harris: 42.5%
The Lone Star State is where this gerrymandering race-to-the-bottom began in July, after Trump pressured Texas into a mid-decade redistricting to give the GOP five more seats. After Texas Gov. Greg Abbot (R) called a special session of the legislature to draw even more gerrymandered congressional maps, Texas Democrats fled the state to “break quorum,” preventing the GOP majority from passing the new maps. Texas Democrats are incurring fines — $500-a-day, considerably more than the $600-a-month they earn as part-time lawmakers — and face legally-dubious threats of arrest and removal from office.
Whether Texas Democrats can do more than merely delay the redistricting remains to be seen. Two previous quorum breaks — one to stop a mid-decade redistricting in 2003, and another to block a voter restriction bill in 2021 — ultimately failed.
Florida:
Congressional delegation today: 20 R – 8 D (71.4%-28.6%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 23 R – 5 D (82.1%-17.9%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 56.1%, Harris: 42.9%
After Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a map drawn by the Republican-dominated Florida House in 2022 for not diluting Black representation enough, the Legislature drew one more to his liking that led to the state electing 20 Republicans and eight Democrats in 2024. “This was always the constitutionally correct map,” DeSantis said shortly after the Florida Supreme Court rejected challenges to it last month.
Less than a fortnight later, DeSantis was ready to break out his red pen again. “It would be appropriate to do a redistrict here in the mid-decade,” he told reporters. Last week, Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez (R) announced the formation of a Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting this fall. Punchbowl reported Florida Republicans think they can flip at least three seats.
DeSantis told reporters Monday that he’s ready to draw new maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, but it’s still unclear if the rest of the Sunshine State GOP are similarly eager. It’s still unclear how quickly Florida can or will move to redraw its maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. Some South Florida Republicans have expressed concerns ahead of the election that Trump’s draconian immigration policies have dragged down the party’s popularity with the large Venezuelan and Cuban populations there, which may make GOP incumbents less willing to support new maps that could endanger their reelection prospects.
If Florida Republicans do redistrict again, they can expect the map to be challenged under the state’s Fair Districts Amendment (FDA), which explicitly prohibits shaping seats “with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent.” But the Florida Supreme Court recently decided Florida’s current map, which appeared to target a Democratic incumbent, did not violate the FDA.
Missouri:
Congressional delegation today: 6 R – 2 D (75%-25%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 7 R – 1 D (87.5%-12.5%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 58.5%, Harris: 40.1%
Responding to the White House’s public pressure campaign, some Republican lawmakers in the Show Me State want to show Trump a new congressional map that would likely give them another seat in the U.S. House. While Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) is currently weighing whether to call a special session on redistricting, his Lieutenant Governor, David Wassinger, has already come out in support. Republicans in the Missouri state legislature voted against the “7-1” map in the 2022 redistricting, worrying it could backfire and lead to Democrats winning three seats instead of the current two.
Indiana:
Congressional delegation today: 7 R – 2 D (77.8%-22.2%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 8 R – 1 D (88.9%-11.1%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 58.6%, Harris: 39.6%
Despite in-person entreaties from Vice President JD Vance, Indiana’s top Republicans seem less keen than their colleagues in other states to launch a mid-decade redistricting. Observers believe the Republican-dominated state legislature could at most squeeze one more GOP seat out of the delegation, should Gov. Mike Braun (R) call a special session to redistrict. But Braun has so far not expressed much enthusiasm for the idea, which his predecessor called “wrong.”
Ohio:
Congressional delegation today: 10 R – 5 D (66.7%-33.3%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 13 R – 2 D (86.7%-13.3%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 55.1%, Harris: 43.9%
Ohio is already in the midst of its redistricting process, thanks to the quirks of Buckeye State law. If Ohio lawmakers cannot agree on a bipartisan redistricting, then they can implement a stop-gap map that lasts four years (compared to ten for a bipartisan one). Ohio Republicans pushed through a GOP-favorable map after the 2020 census that lasted four years, and so it’s time to come up with another one.
With the White House pushing for maximum partisanship, Ohio Republicans think they could gain two to three seats over the current map. Like in other states, if Republicans push too hard, they could endanger some incumbent seats, particularly those in the Cincinnati suburbs. Ohio’s map-drawing procedure still has months to go before a realistic proposal is unveiled.
New Hampshire:
Congressional delegation today: 0 R – 2 D (0%-100%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 1 R – 1 D (50%-50%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 47.9%, Harris: 50.7%
While the White House had hoped to pressure Granite State Republicans, who control Concord, into possibly carving out a GOP-safe seat, Gov. Kelly Ayote put the kibosh on the idea late last week.
South Carolina:
Congressional delegation today: 6 R – 1 D (85.7%-14.3%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 7 R – 0 D (100%-0%)
2024 vote share: Trump:58.2%, Harris: 40.4%
At least one gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Ralph Norman (R), has endorsed the idea of eliminating the lone Democratic-leaning district in South Carolina. But state House Majority Leader Rep. Davey Hiott told reporters the odds of doing that are “less than zero.”
Democratic-led states:
California:
Congressional delegation today: 43-9 (82.7%-17.3%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 48-4 (92.3%-7.7%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 38.3%, Harris: 58.5%
Gov. Gavin Newsom was one of the first and loudest Democratic governors to respond to Texas redistricting with threats of redrawing his own state’s congressional maps. But California has an independent redistricting commission. Democratic lawmakers could potentially rush a ballot measure to allow a partisan redrawing in response to another state’s own mid-decade redistricting in time for the off-year 2025 elections this fall.
If that happens, California Democrats could expect to gain five more safe seats in 2026.
New York:
Congressional delegation today: 7 R – 19 D (26.9%-73.1%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 4 R – 22 D (15.8%-84.6%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 43.3%, Harris: 55.9%
Hochul has sworn to push through a Democrat-dominated map in response to Texas, but getting rid of the Empire State’s independent redistricting commission would take time. Democratic lawmakers in Albany already introduced a measure to amend the state constitution, which would allow for a mid-decade remapping in response to another state’s gerrymandering, but that proposal would need to be approved in two consecutive sessions before going to voters as a ballot measure.
Assuming New York lawmakers and voters all go along with the idea, observers think New York Democrats could squeeze three more districts through gerrymandering, but it could take until the 2028 midterm elections.
Illinois:
Congressional delegation today: 3 R – 14 D (17.6%-82.4%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 1 R – 16 D (5.9%-94.1%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 43.5%, Harris: 54.4%
Like other Democratic governors, Pritzker has threatened to respond to the GOP mid-decade redistricting in red states with his own. Given the state’s already considerable partisan lean, that might be difficult — two seats may be more than realistically achievable. But unlike in New York or California, the Illinois state legislature -– dominated by Democrats — is already empowered to draw the maps here, so there is no need to seek voter approval for changes to the redistricting process.
Maryland:
Congressional delegation today: 1 R – 7 D (12.5%-87.5%)
Potential delegation after redistricting: 0 1– 8 D (0%-100%)
2024 vote share: Trump: 34.1%, Harris: 62.6%
While Democratic lawmakers in Annapolis say they want to introduce “trigger” legislation allowing Maryland to redistrict in response to other states’ own mid-decade remapping — like what is happening now in Texas — the state constitution stands as a mighty impediment. Attempts to make Maryland’s lone GOP-held district more competitive after the 2020 census were struck down as partisan gerrymandering in violation of the Maryland Constitution.