Trump’s redistricting war could be a midterms flop for the GOP

Republicans may not have much to show for the year they spent hastily ramming new congressional maps through state legislatures. As voters start casting their ballots, many of the seats the GOP hoped to flip are trending blue in spite of the White House push to rig the maps.

President Donald Trump began the unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war last year when he insisted Republicans were “entitled” to five more congressional seats in Texas. Republicans raced to update the Lone Star State’s congressional map with more GOP-friendly district lines, and other GOP-controlled states followed suit. 

Republicans hold a 218-214 edge in the House of Representatives with two seats currently vacant and one held by Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican who became an independent in March after California redrew his district. However, the gerrymander intended to ensure GOP control over the House may backfire, with at least eight of the newly drawn seats rated as tossups or leaning toward Democrats.

Red state legislatures that redrew congressional districts shaved their voter majorities in safe seats to boost their odds of unseating Democrats. However, those narrower margins make some traditional GOP strongholds more vulnerable to a wave election, and Democrats currently enjoy a 7-point edge over Republicans on the generic ballot in a new poll.

Of the five redrawn Texas districts, Cook Political Report rates only District 32 in North Texas solidly Republican and considers at least two targets in South Texas well within reach for Democrats. And in Houston’s District 9, new polling shows GOP candidate Alex Mealer holding a six-point lead over Leticia Gutierrez (D) in a district Trump would have won by 20 points in 2024, according to data from the Texas Legislative Council. Mealer, notably, has a history of election denial. She filed a lawsuit challenging the results of the 2022 local election she lost by more than 18,000 votes.

In Florida, three of the GOP’s four redistricting targets are considered tossups. 

The sole district Republicans hoped to flip in North Carolina is rated a tossup, as well. And in Missouri, the Kansas City district targeted by the GOP remains solidly Democratic after voters successfully fought to put the new map to a veto referendum on this year’s November ballot.

Republicans also redrew two Ohio congressional districts last year, hoping to flip two seats currently held by Democrats. Despite those changes, the GOP doesn’t appear to have a lead in either race. Toledo’s District 9 is considered a toss-up, while Cincinnati’s District 1 leans Democratic.  

However, the GOP could still walk away with some redistricting gains this year, particularly in Southern states that rushed to redraw maps this summer immediately after the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act. Republicans could pick up one seat each in Alabama, Tennessee and Louisiana — all of them at the expense of Black voters, who stand to lose hard-won representation in Congress if the new gerrymanders work in Republicans’ favor.

Trump’s aggressive redistricting push provoked a backlash in several blue states that redrew their own lines to offset Republican gerrymanders.

California Democrats redrew the state’s congressional map in response to Trump’s redistricting war, aiming to flip five districts to offset the five new GOP seats Trump demanded in Texas. Three of those California districts are considered solidly Democratic, the fourth leans Democratic and the final one is a toss-up. 

Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ attempt to redraw its congressional maps in response to GOP gerrymanders despite voters approving the map at a referendum. The new map would have resulted in four more Democratic districts had it gone into effect. Despite that, polling shows Democrats could pick up some of those seats this year even without the redistricting boost — two of the targeted districts are now considered toss-ups.

Lastly, Democrats are also on track to pick up one seat in Utah, after courts ruled the former map was an illegal gerrymander and ordered new district lines. 

Republicans have noticed that their redistricting war may not turn out as planned. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told CNN on Tuesday that some GOP incumbents are facing the added challenge of “new territory” this year.

“We have even incumbents who are moved into areas that have brand new voters,” Johnson said. “So we’ve got to do all the fundamentals and do it right.” 

And Adam Kincaid, a leading mapmaker for the national GOP, noted earlier this month that his job was to set the “battlefield.” 

“As far as redistricting this cycle goes, we did our job,” Kincaid said. “But some of these new districts may be hard to win this cycle.”