Poll: Many voters believe upcoming midterm elections will likely be stolen; few agree on what ‘stolen’ means

The bad news is that many voters believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, and that the upcoming midterm elections will be stolen, too; the also-bad news is that there’s little agreement among voters about what a stolen election means. 

A new poll from Politico found that only 39% of those surveyed believed, without reservation, that the 2020 election was not stolen. A similar percentage (40%) said that this year’s midterms were unlikely to be stolen. 

However, there was wild divergence in the poll about what constitutes a stolen election, especially when accounting for political affiliation. Such confusion could lead voters to view elections with suspicion, if not illegitimacy, which could suppress voter turnout and undermine voter confidence.

Republicans were more likely to define it in terms of the absence of voter ID laws and the expansion of mail-in voting. Such policies align with President Donald Trump’s proposed anti-voting measures and repeated falsehoods around the 2020 election being “rigged.”

Other recent polls have also shown that Republican voters are increasingly concerned that past election outcomes were compromised, suggesting that Trump’s messages are sinking in with GOP voters.

The largest pockets of those in the Politico poll who said that the 2020 election was stolen were found among Trump voters, those planning to vote Republican in the upcoming midterms, and MAGA Trump voters, as aggregated in the survey. 

Regardless of political party, 24% believed the election was stolen outright, while 19% questioned the election’s legitimacy and another 19% just didn’t know. Hispanics and those making more than $100,000 in income were also more likely to believe it was stolen.

Meanwhile, more than a third of all polled said the midterms will likely (21%) or very likely (%14) be stolen, while 40% said it was unlikely to be stolen, and 25% said they didn’t know. 

As for what “stolen” means, the Politico poll offered respondents 11 categories and asked if each were fair parts of elections, fair but subject to stealing elections, or “is only ever a way to steal elections.”

Those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 were more likely to say that measures such as deploying ICE agents to polls, banning mail-in voting, seizing ballots, purging and voter ID could only be viewed as measures for stealing elections. Trump voters viewed same-day voter registration, mail-in voting, lacking voter ID requirements and signing up voters at churches as instruments for stealing elections. 

Meanwhile, 28% of African Americans and 34% of Hispanic respondents said they did not expect the midterms to be fair, compared with 21% of white respondents. Less than half of Black and Hispanic voters said they expect the midterms will be fair – 43% and 45% respectively – compared with 52% of white voters.  

Despite Trump’s attempts to change voter rules out of false allegations of voter fraud, Republicans were more likely to believe that the upcoming midterms will be fair. They were also less likely to fear that Democrats will try to steal the election (47%) than Democrats worried about a Republican steal (62%).