Five ways Trump could use his primetime speech to undermine our elections

President Donald Trump has offered few details about the “really big news” he plans to announce during a primetime address Thursday, beyond saying the speech will focus on voting machines and what he considers “free and fair elections.”

But the timing of the address and leaks to the media — as well as the Trump administration’s recent actions — offer clues about what the president may try to accomplish.

The White House is considering releasing intelligence about foreign access to U.S. election infrastructure and vulnerabilities in voting equipment. The material reportedly does not show that China or any other foreign government manipulated votes in the 2020 presidential election. 

Still, Trump has spent more than five years falsely claiming that widespread fraud and voting machine manipulation cost him the race.

Since returning to office, Trump has tried to expand presidential control over elections, pressured Congress to enact the sweeping anti-voting SAVE America Act and directed federal agencies to investigate state and local election officials. Last week, he removed the remaining members of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC), the bipartisan agency responsible for federal voting system standards.

Of course, even some members of Trump’s party are pointing out the obvious problems with his crusade. 

“I don’t think the problem is that our elections aren’t secure because we control the House, Senate, White House, and to some degree we control the Supreme Court,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) said Thursday. “So I ask my Republican colleagues, why are you complaining about election fraud? We won all the damn elections!”

Still, Thursday’s speech may be less about proving what happened in 2020 than creating a justification for what Trump wants government officials to do for the 2026 midterms — and the next presidential election.

Put voting machines under scrutiny

Trump has confirmed that voting machines will be central to Thursday’s address. He may use newly declassified material to demand federal action against systems produced by Dominion Voting Systems, now called Liberty Vote.

Election expert Michael McDonald has suggested that Trump could pressure the EAC’s executive director to decertify “Dominion” systems, pointing to authority the commission previously delegated to agency staff. 

Trump’s recent purge of the EAC, which the administration may argue means agency staff are now in charge, makes that threat especially urgent.

“It is thus possible Trump will order EAC Executive Director Brianna Schletz to decertify Dominion — the company has been renamed Liberty Vote — voting machines,” McDonald wrote. “If she refuses, Trump will fire her and replace her with someone who will.”

But decertification would not be as simple as ordering a nationwide ban on a manufacturer. The EAC certifies particular voting system configurations and software versions, and its procedures contemplate evidence of noncompliance, an investigation, notice to the manufacturer and an opportunity to correct identified problems. 

The agency is also operating without commissioners and therefore cannot establish new policy or conduct official commission business. Whether staff could initiate or complete a politically charged decertification action under previously delegated authority would likely become an immediate legal dispute.

But even without formal decertification, Trump could pressure states to dismantle equipment, demand additional security testing or threaten to withhold federal funding. The broader objective may be to turn a technical certification process into another political test. 

Election officials who continue using targeted machines could be portrayed as knowingly operating an insecure election.

Create a national security excuse for federal intervention

The distinction between a vulnerable system and a compromised election will be crucial to monitor Thursday.

As mentioned previously, the White House may release intelligence suggesting China worked to interfere with U.S. elections in 2020 — but not evidence that Beijing manipulated votes. A separate administration examination of voting machines seized in Puerto Rico reportedly found security flaws but no proof that the equipment had previously been hacked.

Trump may try to blur those categories.

By presenting theoretical vulnerabilities, attempted intrusions and altered votes as parts of the same threat, he could falsely frame state-run elections as a national security emergency requiring federal intervention.

That framing could create a rationale for greater involvement by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, FBI, Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice. Those agencies could be directed to investigate voting vendors, demand state election records, issue cybersecurity directives or impose new conditions on federal grants.

The Constitution assigns states primary responsibility for administering congressional elections while allowing Congress to alter those rules. It does not give the president authority to take over the process.

But a national address centered on foreign threats could provide the political predicate for an emergency order or another executive action — even if courts ultimately block it.

Make Democratic victories easier to challenge

Trump may also be trying to shape how his supporters interpret election results, with the goal of bolstering or encouraging challenges to Democratic wins.

For months, his administration has targeted voting practices and jurisdictions that tend to draw suspicion from election deniers, including mail voting, slower vote counts and elections administered by Democratic-led cities. The Justice Department has sued states for voter information, opened investigations after Trump promoted unsupported fraud allegations and threatened election officials with possible criminal consequences. 

Thursday’s speech could provide a common narrative for those efforts: Voting systems are vulnerable, federal officials previously concealed the danger and Democratic election administrators cannot be trusted to police themselves.

That narrative could become especially powerful in close races. 

Republican candidates could cite Trump’s claims to challenge outcomes, demand recounts, delay certification and pressure state officials to investigate Democratic victories. Federal agencies could then point to the resulting disputes as grounds for litigation, additional probes and intervention.

There is no confirmed evidence that Trump will target a particular 2026 contest. An initial report that he would call Democratic Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock’s 2020 victories “illegitimate” was later softened by the right-wing outlet that published it.

But the broader strategy may not require naming individual candidates. Creating generalized distrust now could make challenges after November appear normalized and expected — rather than extraordinary.

Revive the SAVE America Act

Trump has repeatedly demanded that Republicans pass the SAVE America Act, a sweeping package that would impose documentary proof of citizenship and photo identification to register and vote, among other anti-voting measures.

The legislation has stalled in the Senate, where Democrats can block it under the filibuster, and several Republicans have opposed recent attempts to attach it to other legislation. Trump has responded by threatening to block unrelated bills and demanding that Republicans use budget reconciliation or change Senate procedures to enact his voting agenda.

On Wednesday, House Republicans unveiled a budget proposal that would provide $10 billion in incentives for states to adopt citizenship-verification and voter-identification requirements. Because the proposal is designed to move through reconciliation, Republicans hope to avoid the Senate’s normal 60-vote threshold, although nonbudgetary provisions could still be removed. 

A dramatic speech alleging foreign threats or insecure voting equipment could be intended to change that political calculation. Trump could argue that the midterms are approaching too quickly for Congress to wait, galvanize Republican holdouts and cast opposition to his bill as opposition to national security.

Machine vulnerabilities would not logically justify proof-of-citizenship requirements or restrictions on mail voting. But packaging them together as solutions to a national election “crisis” could give the SAVE America Act new momentum.

Still, Senate leaders have consistently said the measure has no viable path through the chamber.

Build the election control agenda for 2028

The immediate audience for Trump’s speech may be members of Congress and state officials preparing for November. But his longer-term target could be the rules governing the 2028 presidential election.

Trump is constitutionally barred from being elected president for a third term, but he can still try to influence the rules, technologies and institutions that will govern the contest to choose his successor.

A sustained campaign against voting machines could push Republican-controlled states toward different equipment, hand-counting requirements or new restrictions on ballot-marking devices. A revived SAVE America Act could change registration, voter ID and mail-voting rules nationwide. New federal demands for voter files could give the administration access to information it has repeatedly and unsuccessfully sought through litigation.

The speech could also operate as an ultimate loyalty test. 

Republican governors, secretaries of state and candidates may be pressed to endorse Trump’s assertions, support greater federal intervention and promise not to certify results produced under rules he has labeled corrupt.

Trump’s election agenda has repeatedly encountered constitutional limits, defiant state officials and resistant federal courts. But losing those fights may not make the campaign meaningless. By announcing its next phase from the White House in primetime, Trump can establish the allegations his allies will repeat, the policies Republicans will pursue and the grounds they may invoke to dispute the 2026 elections and beyond.