New data suggests Peltola likely to win Alaska, voters not confused by 2 Dan Sullivans

Both incumbent Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola said in dueling “path to victory memos” that they expect to win once every ballot is counted and ranked-choice voting reallocations begin.  

But an independent analysis conducted by the New York Times suggests Peltola will emerge victorious — and that one of President Donald Trump’s central claims about the race is wrong. 

Last month, the Department of Justice (DOJ) attempted to preemptively interfere in the Alaska race, suing the state’s Division of Elections to block certification of the Senate race if Sullivan lost. The DOJ claimed the presence of the similarly named Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot would confuse voters. Last week, a federal judge rejected that lawsuit.* 

Now, the Times’ review of Alaska’s ranked-choice vote data suggests that Peltola was the second choice for the majority of Daniel J. Sullivan’s voters and will pick up their votes once he is eliminated from the count.

That finding implies that most of them did not accidentally mistake him for incumbent Sen. Sullivan. 

Arguing that Daniel J. Sullivan confused voters, Trump has called for Alaska to hand all his votes — and those of a fourth candidate in the Senate race — over to Sen. Sullivan, a proposal with no legal basis or historical precedent.

Along with Mississippi, Alaska is one of two remaining uncalled Senate races this year. Democrats have already flipped six seats, meaning they will control the Senate next year with at least a 54-member majority. 

As of Friday, both the Peltola and Sen. Sullivan campaigns said the remaining uncounted votes would give them the edge in the final tally.

“The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska’s next United States Senator,” Peltola’s campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said in a statement.

“Ranked choice tabulation will decide the race between Senator Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola and that tabulation favors Sullivan,” Sullivan’s campaign wrote. 

If Sen. Sullivan’s memo proves accurate, it will mean his campaign won thanks to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting (RCV) system — an ironic outcome, given that Republicans led a ballot initiative this year to repeal RCV. That effort appears likely to fail, as the “no” vote narrowly leads as ballots continue to be counted.

As of Friday morning, Peltola led the initial count by roughly 600 ballots with 48.2% of the vote. 

In most states without ranked-choice voting, a plurality like that would be enough for victory. But in Alaska, ranked-choice tabulation reallocates second- and third-choice votes from eliminated candidates until someone gains an outright majority. 

Peltola’s campaign predicts that early in-person (EIP) votes that have yet to be counted and absentee ballots will continue to break her way — so far, the Democrat “has won 56.6% of EIP Votes and 56.7% of mail ballots, and there is no evidence to suggest this trend will slow,” her campaign wrote. 

Sullivan’s campaign also argued that the remaining uncounted votes would deliver him a narrow victory. 

“The Division of Elections has ~20,000 early votes and ~27,000 absentee ballots in hand that we believe will not be counted until Nov. 10, with late mail and questioned ballots still to come. Sullivan needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote in what is left,” its memo contended. “He has 49.8% of the two-way vote counted so far.”

Alaska has one of the slowest vote counts in the nation, thanks to its vast size, remoteness and arctic weather. The Last Frontier State counts mail ballots arriving 10 days after Election Day, provided they were postmarked by then. In remote areas accessible only by airplane, bad winter weather can delay mail deliveries for days. 

*The Elias Law Group (ELG) represents the Peltola campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in this case. ELG Firm Chair Marc Elias is the founder of Democracy Docket.