Fewer Democrats say they will vote by mail after Trump’s failed assault

President Donald Trump’s all-out assault on mail voting has come at a time when more Democrats use it. Now, fewer Democratic voters say they plan to vote by mail in the midterms, compared to how many did so in 2024, an NBC News poll reported today.

This year, 36% of registered Democrats say they plan to vote on Election Day and another 36% want to vote early in person. Just 23% say they plan to cast a mail ballot — an 11-point decrease from the 2024 election. 

The number of Democrats who say they plan to vote early in person is up from 30% in 2024. More independent voters, five points more than two years ago, also said they want to vote early in person this year.

The finding comes after the Supreme Court blocked part of Trump’s mail-voting order that could have disenfranchised millions of voters. But voting advocates have warned that the months-long uncertainty over the order may still have shaken voter confidence in mail voting.

The No Kings movement has turned to early voting messaging, with its upcoming Oct. 17 rally encouraging participants to get to the polls on that day. 

“This year, voters are facing coordinated efforts from their own government to make it harder for eligible voters to vote and have their vote counted,” ACLU Chief Political and Advocacy Officer Deirdre Schifeling said in a statement last month. “That’s why this next chapter of No Kings is focused on encouraging all voters to make a plan to vote as early as possible.”

While Republicans used to be the party of mail voting, with older voters typically relying on the method, post-pandemic data has shown Democrats tilting the scales with more mail votes. Democratic leaders used this data in legal filings to stifle Trump’s attempt to use the United States Postal Service to restrict voting.

Numbers for Republicans have largely stayed the same since 2024, with 16% saying they plan to vote by mail and 26% saying they will vote early in person this year.