Federal Court Tosses GOP Lawsuit Against Missouri’s Gerrymander Referendum Effort

A federal judge Monday dismissed Missouri Republicans’ attempt to stop voters from pursuing a referendum against the state’s newly gerrymandered congressional map. 

The ruling eliminates the GOP’s federal challenge just days before People Not Politicians (PNP), the organization leading the referendum effort, is expected to submit well over 200,000 signatures — positioning Missouri voters to decide for themselves whether to accept the new gerrymander.

U.S. District Judge Zachary M. Bluestone, appointed by President Donald Trump, ruled that the GOP officials’ lawsuit was fundamentally premature and lacked the kinds of real, immediate harms that federal courts require for review.

The judge essentially found that the state asked a federal court to block a referendum that the state’s own officials claim they already have the power to block themselves.

“People Not Politicians concedes that Plaintiff Denny Hoskins has the authority as Secretary of State to reject their petition as unconstitutional during post-submission review and to defend that decision based on the very same constitutional arguments the State advances in this case,” Bluestone wrote. “Fortunately for the State, Secretary Hoskins has a tool at his disposal that almost no other litigant could boast — the power to declare the petition unconstitutional himself. And at this point, decertification would forestall any remaining cognizable harms.”

In other words, the GOP-controlled state government could not claim it needs urgent federal intervention to stop a referendum when the Secretary of State already claimed he can reject the petition after it is submitted. Because of that, the judge found, the state’s fears were hypothetical — not the kind of legal injuries federal courts can remedy.

Missouri Republicans have been waging an aggressive, multi-front campaign to block the referendum effort after passing a deeply gerrymandered congressional map during a special session. The map would all but guarantee a 7–1 GOP advantage by breaking apart Kansas City’s black population.

But with this dismissal, the GOP’s most high-profile challenge has collapsed, and the decision arrives at a pivotal moment. 

PNP organizers have indicated they will submit signatures this week, likely far above the 106,000 required. If Secretary of State Denny Hoskins (R) certifies the petition as sufficient, the map cannot be used for the 2026 elections until voters decide whether to approve or reject it.

The referendum’s success would be a direct check on partisan power that Missouri Republicans have been desperate to avoid — and a major setback for Trump’s plan to rig the midterms before a single vote is cast.

Bluestone further made clear that federal courts may not be the right venue for the GOP’s fight to suppress voters, emphasizing that federal courts should avoid stepping into state-run democratic processes unless absolutely unavoidable. 

The judge invoked a longstanding principle that federal courts should not become battlegrounds for state political disputes, especially when those disputes stem from state constitutional grounds.

“Further, abstaining here would avoid federal interference in a referendum process created entirely by the Missouri Constitution and state law,” Bluestone stated. “In particular, courts should avoid ‘needless friction between federal pronouncements and state policies,’ especially in cases involving ‘a matter of great state concern.’”

On a subtler note, the judge highlighted how Missouri weakened its own argument for urgent legal relief.

“Even if they were redressable at the outset of the case, the State abandoned its ability to prevent these harms when it agreed to forego emergency relief until now,” Bluestone added.

In other words, if this truly was an emergency, Missouri officials would not have used delay tactics earlier this year. That delay undercut their claims of immediate injury.

This dismissal does not end every challenge surrounding the referendum — state-level litigation continues over signatures and ballot language. And Hoskins could still attempt to reject the petition during his post-submission review.

But the significance of Monday’s ruling is undeniable for the thousands of volunteers and voters who’ve spent months pushing for a say on their state’s congressional districts.